Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- BAL defense: -0.162 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- CAR defense: +0.038 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
- BAL offense: +0.018 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
- CAR offense: +0.030 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 8
BAL
CAR
Pulled fresh for 2018 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:57 TD BAL (7:57) (Shotgun) 34-A.Collins up the middle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – CAR 0
- Q1 00:42 TD CAR (:42) 22-C.McCaffrey left end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 7 – CAR 6
- Q2 13:30 TD CAR (13:30) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 88-G.Olsen for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 7 – CAR 13
- Q2 03:52 TD CAR (3:52) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short middle to 22-C.McCaffrey for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Ball was tipped by Eric Weddle. BAL 7 – CAR 20
- Q2 00:02 FG CAR (:02) 9-G.Gano 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. BAL 7 – CAR 24
- Q3 03:03 FG CAR (3:03) 9-G.Gano 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. BAL 7 – CAR 27
- Q3 00:16 TD BAL (:16) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 37-J.Allen for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 13 – CAR 27
- Q4 09:59 TD CAR (9:59) 1-C.Newton left end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 14 – CAR 33
- Q4 03:14 FG CAR (3:14) 9-G.Gano 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. BAL 14 – CAR 36
- Q4 01:08 TD BAL (1:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 81-H.Hurst for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 20 – CAR 36
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CAR 4th & 6 at the 47Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 30%
(4:40) 5-M.Palardy punts 46 yards to BAL 1, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-10-C.Samuel.
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Q1 BAL 4th & 6 at the 95Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(3:01) 4-S.Koch punts 53 yards to CAR 42, Center-46-M.Cox. 18-D.Byrd to CAR 46 for 4 yards (49-C.Board).
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Q2 BAL 4th & 7 at the 44Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EPp(convert) 38% p(FG) 38%
(9:59) 4-S.Koch punts 43 yards to CAR 1, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-27-C.Jones.
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Q2 BAL 4th & 1 at the 66Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72%
(2:31) 5-J.Flacco up the middle to BAL 35 for 1 yard (90-J.Peppers; 54-S.Thompson).
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Q2 CAR 4th & 7 at the 49Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 26%
(:05) (Shotgun) 6-T.Heinicke pass short left to 88-G.Olsen ran ob at BAL 36 for 13 yards.
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Q3 CAR 4th & 9 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(11:59) 5-M.Palardy punts 51 yards to BAL 12, Center-44-J.Jansen. 27-C.Jones pushed ob at BAL 35 for 23 yards (12-D.Moore).
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Q3 BAL 4th & 3 at the 46Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52% p(FG) 33%
(10:25) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete short left to 83-W.Snead IV [59-L.Kuechly].
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Q3 CAR 4th & 4 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45% p(FG) 28%
(8:09) 5-M.Palardy punts 40 yards to BAL 8, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.
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Q3 CAR 4th & 2 at the 26Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EPp(convert) 54% p(FG) 81%
(3:03) 9-G.Gano 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
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Q4 CAR 4th & 9 at the 12 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 95%
(3:14) 9-G.Gano 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.