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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 46

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Carolina Panthers 24

What Actually Happened

(10:25) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete short left to 83-W.Snead IV [59-L.Kuechly].

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.07 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.69 EP
KICK -1.32 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model