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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 95

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:01) 4-S.Koch punts 53 yards to CAR 42, Center-46-M.Cox. 18-D.Byrd to CAR 46 for 4 yards (49-C.Board).

The Three Options

GO -3.24 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth -0.15 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 95, worth -5.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

PUNT -3.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 53, worth -3.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model