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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 12

Carolina Panthers 33 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(3:14) 9-G.Gano 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.90 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 12, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 22, worth -0.80 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model