Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 63

Carolina Panthers 24 – Baltimore Ravens 7

(11:59) 5-M.Palardy punts 51 yards to BAL 12, Center-44-J.Jansen. 27-C.Jones pushed ob at BAL 35 for 23 yards (12-D.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.74 EP
66% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 63, worth -3.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model