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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 49

Carolina Panthers 21 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(:05) (Shotgun) 6-T.Heinicke pass short left to 88-G.Olsen ran ob at BAL 36 for 13 yards.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +1.36 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 26% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -0.52 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model