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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 47

Carolina Panthers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(4:40) 5-M.Palardy punts 46 yards to BAL 1, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-10-C.Samuel.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.34 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 47, worth -2.37 EP
KICK -1.06 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 13, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model