4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
DET Away

Detroit Lions

HC Matt Patricia
@
MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

HC Adam Gase
Sunday 2018-10-21 · 13:00 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

DET
60.9%
MIA
39.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to DET: Brock Osweiler (MIA) -0.102 vs Matthew Stafford (DET) +0.130 EPA/dropback
  • MIA offense: -0.098 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • DET offense: +0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • DET on 7 more days rest than MIA
  • MIA defense: +0.025 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DET 25
–
MIA 21
Projected margin: DET by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

DET

Theo Riddick RB Out Knee
T.J. Lang G Questionable Concussion
Michael Roberts TE Questionable Knee
Ezekiel Ansah DE Questionable Shoulder

MIA

Charles Harris DE Out Calf
Jonathan Woodard DE Out Concussion
Ryan Tannehill QB Out right Shoulder
Bobby McCain CB Questionable Knee
T.J. McDonald S Questionable Knee
DeVante Parker WR Questionable Quadricep
Cameron Wake DE Questionable Knee
A.J. Derby TE Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 32
–
MIA 21

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:18 TD DET (9:18) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 80-M.Roberts for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – MIA 0
  • Q2 12:39 FG DET (12:39) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 10 – MIA 0
  • Q2 07:38 TD MIA (7:38) (Shotgun) 8-B.Osweiler pass short right to 10-K.Stills for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 10 – MIA 6
  • Q2 01:06 TD DET (1:06) 29-L.Blount left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 16 – MIA 7
  • Q3 08:36 FG DET (8:36) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 20 – MIA 7
  • Q3 07:15 TD MIA (7:15) 32-K.Drake left tackle for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 20 – MIA 13
  • Q3 03:21 TD DET (3:21) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 80-M.Roberts for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 26 – MIA 14
  • Q4 10:09 FG DET (10:09) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 29 – MIA 14
  • Q4 06:08 TD MIA (6:08) (Shotgun) 8-B.Osweiler pass deep right to 80-D.Amendola for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 29 – MIA 20
  • Q4 02:00 FG DET (2:00) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 32 – MIA 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:01) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 49 yards to DET 27, Center-92-J.Denney. 15-G.Tate to DET 36 for 9 yards (27-K.Ballage).

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 5 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (5:30) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 45 yards to DET 11, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-34-S.Perry.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 2 at the 81
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (3:48) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 61 yards to MIA 20, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 19-J.Grant to MIA 39 for 19 yards (44-J.Reeves-Maybin; 35-M.Killebrew).

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 9 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 47%

    (:18) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 37 yards to DET 4, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-31-C.Armstrong.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.75 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 96%

    (12:39) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 1 at the 11
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 96%

    (10:12) 9-M.Stafford left guard to MIA 9 for 2 yards (47-K.Alonso).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 96%

    (8:36) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 15 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (14:14) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 51 yards to DET 14, Center-92-J.Denney. 15-G.Tate to DET 20 for 6 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 4 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 92%

    (10:09) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 7 at the 31 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 73%

    (2:00) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.