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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 17

Detroit Lions 26 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(10:09) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.01 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 17, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 27, worth -1.29 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model