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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 31

Detroit Lions 29 – Miami Dolphins 21

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +3.37 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 31, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 41, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model