Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 41

Miami Dolphins 0 – Detroit Lions 7

(:18) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 37 yards to DET 4, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-31-C.Armstrong.

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.98 EP
68% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 41, worth -1.79 EP

KICK -0.26 EP

47% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
53% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model