Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 15 at the 65

Miami Dolphins 14 – Detroit Lions 26

(14:14) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 51 yards to DET 14, Center-92-J.Denney. 15-G.Tate to DET 20 for 6 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick).

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.73 EP
73% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 65, worth -3.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model