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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Detroit Lions
4th & 1 at the 11
Detroit Lions 17 – Miami Dolphins 7
What Actually Happened
(10:12) 9-M.Stafford left guard to MIA 9 for 2 yards (47-K.Alonso).
The Three Options
GO
+3.37 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.19 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP
KICK
+1.70 EP
- 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
- 4% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 22, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT
-0.16 EP
- Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
