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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 10

Detroit Lions 17 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(8:36) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.59 EP
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.76 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 10, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model