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MIA Away

Miami Dolphins

HC Adam Gase
@
CIN Home

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Marvin Lewis
Sunday 2018-10-07 · 13:00 Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

MIA
37.7%
CIN
62.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIA offense: -0.083 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • CIN defense: +0.028 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIA 21
–
CIN 25
Projected margin: CIN by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

MIA

A.J. Derby TE Out Foot
Luke Falk QB Out left Wrist
Bobby McCain CB Out Knee
Cameron Wake DE Doubtful Knee
Chase Allen LB Questionable Foot
Stephone Anthony LB Questionable Hamstring
Brandon Bolden RB Questionable Hamstring
Reshad Jones S Questionable Shoulder
T.J. McDonald S Questionable Foot
Andre Branch DE Questionable Knee
DeVante Parker WR Questionable Quadricep

CIN

Giovani Bernard RB Out Knee
Tyler Eifert TE Out Ankle
Billy Price C Out Foot
John Ross WR Out Groin

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 17
–
CIN 27

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 07:28 TD MIA (7:28) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left to 32-K.Drake for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – CIN 0
  • Q2 00:40 TD MIA (:40) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to MIA 29, Center-46-C.Harris. 19-J.Grant pushed ob at CIN 2 for 69 yards (16-C.Core). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to MIA 29, Center-46-C.Harris. 19-J.Grant for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 13 – CIN 0
  • Q3 09:30 FG MIA (9:30) 7-J.Sanders 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack. MIA 17 – CIN 0
  • Q3 05:12 FG CIN (5:12) 4-R.Bullock 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. MIA 17 – CIN 3
  • Q4 15:00 TD CIN (15:00) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 28-J.Mixon for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-C.Harris]. MIA 17 – CIN 9
  • Q4 11:51 TD CIN (11:51) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle intended for 81-D.Smythe INTERCEPTED by 90-M.Johnson [99-A.Billings] at MIA 22. 90-M.Johnson for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 17 – CIN 16
  • Q4 03:33 FG CIN (3:33) 4-R.Bullock 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. MIA 17 – CIN 20
  • Q4 02:46 TD CIN (2:46) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at MIA 18 for 0 yards (96-C.Dunlap). FUMBLES (96-C.Dunlap) [96-C.Dunlap], RECOVERED by CIN-94-S.Hubbard at MIA 19. 94-S.Hubbard for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIA-70-J.James, Offensive Holding, declined. MIA 17 – CIN 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 5 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (11:43) 2-M.Haack punts 44 yards to CIN 10, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 7 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (3:00) 2-M.Haack punts 50 yards to CIN 15, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson. PENALTY on CIN-21-D.Dennard, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at CIN 15.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 9 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:40) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to MIA 5, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-40-B.Wilson.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 2 at the 19
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 91%

    (3:58) 4-R.Bullock 37 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-V.Taylor), Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. Penalty on CIN-68-B.Hart, Illegal Formation, declined.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 2 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 48%

    (1:21) 2-M.Haack punts 25 yards to CIN 17, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 6 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (:40) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to MIA 29, Center-46-C.Harris. 19-J.Grant pushed ob at CIN 2 for 69 yards (16-C.Core). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to MIA 29, Center-46-C.Harris. 19-J.Grant for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 19 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (12:58) 10-K.Huber punts 36 yards to MIA 48, Center-46-C.Harris. 19-J.Grant to MIA 48 for no gain (40-B.Wilson).

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 8 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 86%

    (9:30) 7-J.Sanders 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 11 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 70%

    (5:12) 4-R.Bullock 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (3:35) 2-M.Haack punts 58 yards to CIN 8, Center-92-J.Denney. 12-A.Erickson pushed ob at CIN 14 for 6 yards (38-B.Bolden). PENALTY on MIA-53-M.Spaight, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 14.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 8 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (7:40) 2-M.Haack punts 32 yards to CIN 23, Center-92-J.Denney. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 36 for 13 yards (92-J.Denney; 55-J.Baker).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 2 at the 2 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

    (3:33) 4-R.Bullock 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 7 at the 68 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (:43) 10-K.Huber punts 37 yards to MIA 31, Center-46-C.Harris. 19-J.Grant pushed ob at MIA 45 for 14 yards (81-T.Kroft).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 10 at the 42 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.14 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 48%

    (:02) (Shotgun) 32-K.Drake right guard to CIN 17 for 25 yards (59-N.Vigil).