Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 79

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(:40) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to MIA 29, Center-46-C.Harris. 19-J.Grant pushed ob at CIN 2 for 69 yards (16-C.Core). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to MIA 29, Center-46-C.Harris. 19-J.Grant for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.63 EP
56% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 79, worth -3.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model