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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 2

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(3:33) 4-R.Bullock 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +3.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.89 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 2, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP