4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 42

Miami Dolphins 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 27

What Actually Happened

(:02) (Shotgun) 32-K.Drake right guard to CIN 17 for 25 yards (59-N.Vigil).

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +0.99 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 42, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.05 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -0.16 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.14 EP