4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 54

Miami Dolphins 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(11:43) 2-M.Haack punts 44 yards to CIN 10, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.54 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 54, worth -3.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 16, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model