Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 65

Miami Dolphins 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(3:00) 2-M.Haack punts 50 yards to CIN 15, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson. PENALTY on CIN-21-D.Dennard, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at CIN 15.

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.93 EP
62% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 65, worth -3.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model