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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 66

Miami Dolphins 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(3:35) 2-M.Haack punts 58 yards to CIN 8, Center-92-J.Denney. 12-A.Erickson pushed ob at CIN 14 for 6 yards (38-B.Bolden). PENALTY on MIA-53-M.Spaight, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 14.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 66, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.05 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 24, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP