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Green Bay Packers

HC Mike McCarthy
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Detroit Lions

HC Matt Patricia
Sunday 2018-10-07 · 13:00 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread 1.0 O/U 50.0

Win Probability

GB
34.8%
DET
65.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: -0.091 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • DET offense: +0.040 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Matthew Stafford (DET): +0.119 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

GB 20
–
DET 25
Projected margin: DET by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

GB

Randall Cobb WR Out Hamstring
Geronimo Allison WR Questionable Concussion
Jermaine Whitehead S Questionable Back
Davante Adams WR Questionable Calf
Jaire Alexander CB Questionable Groin
Bashaud Breeland CB Questionable Hamstring
Kentrell Brice S Questionable Ankle
Justin McCray G Questionable Shoulder
Lucas Patrick G Questionable Back

DET

T.J. Lang G Out Concussion
Michael Roberts TE Out Knee
Ezekiel Ansah DE Out Shoulder
Eli Harold LB Questionable Not Injury Related
Nevin Lawson CB Questionable Illness
Tracy Walker S Questionable Ankle
Quandre Diggs S Questionable Hand
Da'Shawn Hand DE Questionable Ankle
Marvin Jones WR Questionable Ankle
Tavon Wilson S Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 23
–
DET 31

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:34 TD DET (10:34) 66-J.Dahl reported in as eligible. 29-L.Blount up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – DET 6
  • Q1 01:10 TD DET (1:10) 29-L.Blount left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – DET 13
  • Q2 14:52 FG DET (14:52) 5-M.Prater 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. GB 0 – DET 17
  • Q2 00:20 TD DET (:20) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 11-M.Jones for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-K.Clark]. GB 0 – DET 23
  • Q3 09:45 TD GB (9:45) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – DET 24
  • Q3 01:19 TD GB (1:19) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 84-L.Kendricks for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [27-G.Quin]. GB 14 – DET 24
  • Q4 13:00 TD DET (13:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 19-K.Golladay for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 14 – DET 30
  • Q4 09:07 TD GB (9:07) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 20 – DET 31
  • Q4 00:07 FG GB (:07) 2-M.Crosby 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott. GB 23 – DET 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 17 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 28%

    (10:47) 6-S.Martin punts 39 yards to GB 13, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 20-K.King MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by DET-39-J.Agnew at GB 1. The Replay Official reviewed the kick touched ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 7 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 88%

    (3:26) 2-M.Crosby 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 9 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 90%

    (14:52) 5-M.Prater 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 10 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 87%

    (11:22) 2-M.Crosby 42 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 5 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 34%

    (7:27) 6-S.Martin punts 37 yards to GB 12, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 38-T.Williams.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 20 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 19% p(FG) 91%

    (3:38) 2-M.Crosby 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 11 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (1:37) 6-S.Martin punts 43 yards to GB 15, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 38-T.Williams.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 11 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 59%

    (11:35) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-D.Adams pushed ob at DET 22 for 17 yards (27-G.Quin). Penalty on DET-23-D.Slay, Defensive Holding, declined.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 6 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 64%

    (6:01) 5-M.Prater 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 4 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 78%

    (4:22) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers scrambles up the middle to DET 24 for 6 yards (28-Q.Diggs).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 15 at the 38 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 61%

    (3:40) 2-M.Crosby 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 16 at the 47 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 39%

    (1:15) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to GB 3, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-45-Ch.Washington.