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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 23

Green Bay Packers 0 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(3:26) 2-M.Crosby 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.67 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 23, worth -1.40 EP
KICK +0.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 33, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model