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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 16 at the 47

Detroit Lions 31 – Green Bay Packers 20

What Actually Happened

(1:15) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to GB 3, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-45-Ch.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +1.07 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 47, worth -1.63 EP
KICK -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model