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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 24

Green Bay Packers 0 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(11:22) 2-M.Crosby 42 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.83 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 34, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model