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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 11 at the 39

Green Bay Packers 0 – Detroit Lions 24

What Actually Happened

(11:35) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-D.Adams pushed ob at DET 22 for 17 yards (27-G.Quin). Penalty on DET-23-D.Slay, Defensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.21 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 39, worth -2.19 EP
KICK -0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 48, worth -2.87 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model