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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 37

Detroit Lions 24 – Green Bay Packers 8

What Actually Happened

(6:01) 5-M.Prater 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.92 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.72 EP
KICK +0.52 EP
What Happened
  • 64% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model