Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 17 at the 52

Detroit Lions 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:47) 6-S.Martin punts 39 yards to GB 13, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 20-K.King MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by DET-39-J.Agnew at GB 1. The Replay Official reviewed the kick touched ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.96 EP
74% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.58 EP

KICK -1.15 EP

28% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
72% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model