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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
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Detroit Lions

HC Matt Patricia
Sunday 2018-09-23 · 20:20 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread -7.0 O/U 55.5

Win Probability

NE
59.3%
DET
40.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: +0.139 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • DET defense: +0.052 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DET offense: -0.032 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • QB edge to NE: Matthew Stafford (DET) +0.155 vs Tom Brady (NE) +0.211 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

NE 26
–
DET 23
Projected margin: NE by 3 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

NE

Jacob Hollister TE Out Chest
Patrick Chung S Doubtful Concussion
Trey Flowers DE Doubtful Concussion
Marcus Cannon T Questionable Calf
Keion Crossen CB Questionable Hamstring
Nate Ebner S Questionable Hip
Josh Gordon WR Questionable Hamstring
Eric Rowe CB Questionable Groin

DET

Andrew Donnal T Out Knee
Ezekiel Ansah DE Questionable Shoulder
Eli Harold LB Questionable Hip
Marvin Jones WR Questionable Ankle
T.J. Lang G Questionable Back
Michael Roberts TE Questionable Knee
Darius Slay CB Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 10
–
DET 26

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:00 FG DET (6:00) 5-M.Prater 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. NE 0 – DET 3
  • Q2 14:17 TD DET (14:17) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 19-K.Golladay to NE 1 for 3 yards (24-S.Gilmore). FUMBLES (24-S.Gilmore), ball out of bounds at NE 1. Detroit challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 19-K.Golladay for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 0 – DET 9
  • Q2 05:02 FG DET (5:02) 5-M.Prater 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. NE 0 – DET 13
  • Q2 00:44 FG NE (:44) 3-S.Gostkowski 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3 – DET 13
  • Q3 10:10 TD NE (10:10) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 28-J.White for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 9 – DET 13
  • Q3 03:53 TD DET (3:53) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 11-M.Jones for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 10 – DET 19
  • Q4 12:48 FG DET (12:48) 5-M.Prater 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. NE 10 – DET 23
  • Q4 02:00 FG DET (2:00) 5-M.Prater 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. NE 10 – DET 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 4 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 28%

    (13:44) 6-R.Allen punts 38 yards to DET 14, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-50-N.Grigsby.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 1 at the 21
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 90%

    (6:00) 5-M.Prater 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (5:03) 6-R.Allen punts 36 yards to DET 40, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (12:41) 6-R.Allen punts 46 yards to DET 21, Center-49-J.Cardona. 39-J.Agnew to NE 48 for 31 yards (49-J.Cardona, 43-N.Ebner). PENALTY on DET-24-N.Lawson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DET 32.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 98%

    (5:02) 5-M.Prater 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 3 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 93%

    (:44) 3-S.Gostkowski 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 10 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (2:12) 6-R.Allen punts 46 yards to DET 9, Center-49-J.Cardona. 39-J.Agnew ran ob at DET 25 for 16 yards (18-M.Slater).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 5 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 95%

    (12:48) 5-M.Prater 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 11 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (11:14) 6-R.Allen punts 51 yards to DET 29, Center-49-J.Cardona. 39-J.Agnew to DET 39 for 10 yards (43-N.Ebner). PENALTY on DET-47-T.Walker, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DET 30.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (9:26) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to NE 26, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 41-C.Jones.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 8 at the 55 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (4:43) 6-S.Martin punts 40 yards to NE 15, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 12 at the 87 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.93 EP
    p(convert) 37%

    (3:23) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep right to 13-P.Dorsett. NE-13-P.Dorsett was injured during the play.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 9 at the 12 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 96%

    (2:00) 5-M.Prater 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.