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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 55

Detroit Lions 23 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(4:43) 6-S.Martin punts 40 yards to NE 15, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +1.32 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 55, worth -1.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 16, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model