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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 52

New England Patriots 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(13:44) 6-R.Allen punts 38 yards to DET 14, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-50-N.Grigsby.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.71 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 52, worth -3.37 EP
KICK -2.03 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -3.31 EP
PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 15, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP