4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 12

Detroit Lions 23 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 5-M.Prater 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +3.87 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 12, worth -0.72 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 22, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model