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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 21

Detroit Lions 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(6:00) 5-M.Prater 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +3.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.78 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +2.14 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 31, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP