Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 55

New England Patriots 10 – Detroit Lions 20

(2:12) 6-R.Allen punts 46 yards to DET 9, Center-49-J.Cardona. 39-J.Agnew ran ob at DET 25 for 16 yards (18-M.Slater).

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.61 EP
64% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 55, worth -3.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model