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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 7

Detroit Lions 10 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(5:02) 5-M.Prater 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.90 EP
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.03 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 7, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model