4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
TEN Away

Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
@
MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

HC Adam Gase
Sunday 2018-09-09 · 13:00 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US 🌧 Rain Spread -1.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

TEN
45.5%
MIA
54.5%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIA offense: -0.118 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • TEN offense: -0.044 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
  • Marcus Mariota (TEN): -0.047 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • MIA defense: +0.045 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TEN 22
–
MIA 23
Projected margin: MIA by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

TEN

Rashaan Evans LB Out Hamstring
Harold Landry LB Out Ankle
Kendrick Lewis S Out Foot
Jack Conklin T Out Knee

MIA

DeVante Parker WR Doubtful Finger

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 20
–
MIA 27

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:22 FG TEN (10:22) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 3 – MIA 0
  • Q2 11:26 TD MIA (11:26) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 10-K.Stills for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 3 – MIA 6
  • Q3 04:09 FG MIA (4:09) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack. TEN 3 – MIA 10
  • Q4 14:22 TD TEN (14:22) 33-D.Lewis up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 9 – MIA 10
  • Q4 14:17 TD MIA 4-R.Succop kicks 67 yards from TEN 35 to MIA -2. 19-J.Grant for 102 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 10 – MIA 16
  • Q4 10:33 TD MIA (10:33) (No Huddle) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep middle to 10-K.Stills for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 10 – MIA 23
  • Q4 10:22 TD TEN 7-J.Sanders kicks 59 yards from MIA 35 to TEN 6. 15-D.Jennings for 94 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 16 – MIA 24
  • Q4 03:53 FG MIA (3:53) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack. TEN 17 – MIA 27
  • Q4 00:16 FG TEN (:16) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 20 – MIA 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 4 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 79%

    (10:22) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 4 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (7:46) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-92-J.Denney, Touchback.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (1:47) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 84-C.Davis to MIA 2 for 1 yard (29-M.Fitzpatrick).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 3 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (8:17) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 40 yards to MIA 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 1 at the 15
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 94%

    (2:00) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete short right to 32-K.Drake.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 9 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:30) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 55 yards to MIA 18, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 19-J.Grant to MIA 17 for -1 yards (32-D.Fluellen).

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (13:45) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 45 yards to TEN 23, Center-92-J.Denney. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 49 for 26 yards (38-B.Bolden). TEN-25-A.Jackson was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 4 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 38%

    (12:10) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 35 yards to MIA 10, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 2 at the 82
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (10:09) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 65 yards to TEN 17, Center-81-D.Smythe. 18-R.Matthews to TEN 35 for 18 yards (35-W.Aikens).

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 5 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 97%

    (4:09) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 6 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (11:45) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 49 yards to MIA 9, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 80-D.Amendola ran ob at MIA 11 for 2 yards (29-D.Cruikshank).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 10 at the 12 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

    (3:53) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 7 at the 57 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (3:11) (Shotgun) 7-B.Gabbert pass incomplete short left to 33-D.Lewis.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 10 at the 43 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 43%

    (1:15) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-92-J.Denney, Touchback.