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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 68

Miami Dolphins 7 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(13:45) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 45 yards to TEN 23, Center-92-J.Denney. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 49 for 26 yards (38-B.Bolden). TEN-25-A.Jackson was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 68, worth -3.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 26, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model