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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 55

Tennessee Titans 3 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(8:17) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 40 yards to MIA 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.45 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 55, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 16, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP