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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 12

Miami Dolphins 24 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(3:53) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.05 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 12, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 22, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model