4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 9

Miami Dolphins 7 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(4:09) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +2.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.88 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 9, worth +0.34 EP
KICK +2.15 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.49 EP
PUNT +0.25 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model