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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 58

Tennessee Titans 10 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(11:45) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 49 yards to MIA 9, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 80-D.Amendola ran ob at MIA 11 for 2 yards (29-D.Cruikshank).

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.37 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 58, worth -2.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 18, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model