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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 82

Miami Dolphins 7 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(10:09) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 65 yards to TEN 17, Center-81-D.Smythe. 18-R.Matthews to TEN 35 for 18 yards (35-W.Aikens).

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.80 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 82, worth -4.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.97 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 40, worth -1.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP