4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
TB Away

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Dirk Koetter
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2018-09-09 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 10.0 O/U 50.0

Win Probability

TB
39.1%
NO
60.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Drew Brees (NO): +0.210 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NO offense: +0.061 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • TB offense: +0.023 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TB 23
–
NO 26
Projected margin: NO by 3 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

TB

Vita Vea DT Out Calf
Brent Grimes CB Doubtful Groin
De'Vante Harris CB Doubtful Hamstring
Donovan Smith T Questionable Knee

NO

Jermon Bushrod G Questionable Not Injury Related
Andrus Peat T Questionable Quadricep

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 48
–
NO 40

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 39 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:45 TD NO (11:45) At quarterback for the Saints is #7 T.Hill. #9 D.Brees split out as a wide receiver. (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara left tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 0 – NO 6
  • Q1 09:51 TD TB (9:51) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right to 11-D.Jackson for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 38, YAC 20 TB 6 – NO 7
  • Q1 04:30 FG NO (4:30) 3-W.Lutz 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. TB 7 – NO 10
  • Q1 02:03 TD TB (2:03) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 13 – NO 10
  • Q2 15:00 TD NO (15:00) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 19-T.Ginn for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 28, YAC 0 TB 14 – NO 16
  • Q2 11:17 FG TB (11:17) 7-C.Catanzaro 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. TB 17 – NO 17
  • Q2 04:47 TD TB (4:47) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 12-C.Godwin for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 9, YAC 0 TB 23 – NO 17
  • Q2 04:38 TD TB (4:38) 25-M.Gillislee left end to NO 34 for 2 yards (28-V.Hargreaves). FUMBLES (28-V.Hargreaves), RECOVERED by TB-21-J.Evans at NO 34. 21-J.Evans for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 30 – NO 17
  • Q2 00:59 TD NO (:59) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 13-M.Thomas for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 6, YAC 0 TB 31 – NO 23
  • Q3 11:29 FG TB (11:29) 7-C.Catanzaro 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. TB 34 – NO 24
  • Q3 03:06 TD TB (3:06) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right to 13-M.Evans for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 36, YAC 14 TB 40 – NO 24
  • Q4 12:24 TD TB (12:24) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep middle to 11-D.Jackson for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on NO-93-D.Onyemata, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced between downs. Pass 36, YAC 0 TB 47 – NO 24
  • Q4 08:57 TD NO (8:57) 41-A.Kamara left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 48 – NO 30
  • Q4 03:35 TD NO (3:35) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 41-A.Kamara for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TB-90-J.Pierre-Paul, Defensive Offside, declined. Pass 4, YAC 3 TB 48 – NO 38

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 3 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 93%

    (4:30) 3-W.Lutz 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 7 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 94%

    (11:17) 7-C.Catanzaro 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (9:51) 6-T.Morstead punts 56 yards to TB 20, Center-49-Z.Wood. 11-D.Jackson to TB 22 for 2 yards (31-C.Banjo).

  • Q3 TB 4th & 18 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 93%

    (11:29) 7-C.Catanzaro 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (9:21) 6-T.Morstead punts 42 yards to TB 24, Center-49-Z.Wood. 10-A.Humphries to TB 25 for 1 yard (34-J.Hardee).

  • Q3 TB 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (7:42) 9-B.Anger punts 42 yards to NO 24, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 11-T.Lewis to NO 24 for no gain (29-R.Smith). PENALTY on NO-52-C.Robertson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 24.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (5:18) 6-T.Morstead punts 58 yards to TB 10, Center-49-Z.Wood. 10-A.Humphries ran ob at TB 26 for 16 yards (31-C.Banjo).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 4 at the 13
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 95%

    (9:58) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 82-B.Watson to TB 7 for 6 yards (36-M.Stewart). Pass 6, YAC 0

  • Q4 TB 4th & 3 at the 26 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 84%

    (4:57) 7-C.Catanzaro 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.