4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 66

New Orleans Saints 24 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34

What Actually Happened

(9:21) 6-T.Morstead punts 42 yards to TB 24, Center-49-Z.Wood. 10-A.Humphries to TB 25 for 1 yard (34-J.Hardee).

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP