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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 66

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34 – New Orleans Saints 24

What Actually Happened

(7:42) 9-B.Anger punts 42 yards to NO 24, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 11-T.Lewis to NO 24 for no gain (29-R.Smith). PENALTY on NO-52-C.Robertson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 24.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 66, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 24, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP