4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 68

New Orleans Saints 24 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34

What Actually Happened

(5:18) 6-T.Morstead punts 58 yards to TB 10, Center-49-Z.Wood. 10-A.Humphries ran ob at TB 26 for 16 yards (31-C.Banjo).

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 26, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model