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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 26

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 48 – New Orleans Saints 32

What Actually Happened

(4:57) 7-C.Catanzaro 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.16 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened
  • 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 36, worth -1.39 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model