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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 15

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – New Orleans Saints 17

What Actually Happened

(11:17) 7-C.Catanzaro 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.30 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 15, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model