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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 11 at the 76

New Orleans Saints 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(9:51) 6-T.Morstead punts 56 yards to TB 20, Center-49-Z.Wood. 11-D.Jackson to TB 22 for 2 yards (31-C.Banjo).

The Three Options

GO -2.03 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model