Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- NO offense: +0.128 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- TB defense: +0.035 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
- QB edge to NO: Jameis Winston (TB) +0.096 vs Drew Brees (NO) +0.177 EPA/dropback
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 17
NO
TB
Pulled fresh for 2017 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 09:47 TD TB (9:47) 66-L.Wester reported in as eligible. 25-P.Barber right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 0 – TB 6
- Q1 09:42 TD NO 7-P.Murray kicks 71 yards from TB 35 to NO -6. 41-A.Kamara for 106 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – TB 7
- Q1 02:41 TD NO (2:41) 41-A.Kamara up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 13 – TB 7
- Q2 05:57 TD TB (5:57) 66-L.Wester reported in as eligible. 3-J.Winston scrambles up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 14 – TB 13
- Q3 02:48 FG NO (2:48) (Field Goal formation) 3-W.Lutz 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 17 – TB 13
- Q4 14:19 TD TB (14:19) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 54 yards to NO 14, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 11-T.Lewis to NO 7 for -7 yards (26-J.Robinson). FUMBLES (26-J.Robinson), RECOVERED by TB-39-I.Johnson at NO 7. 39-I.Johnson for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 17 – TB 19
- Q4 07:13 TD NO (7:13) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 42-Z.Line for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 23 – TB 20
- Q4 04:35 FG TB (4:35) (Field Goal formation) 7-P.Murray 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. NO 24 – TB 23
- Q4 00:15 TD TB (:15) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep right to 12-C.Godwin for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 24 – TB 29
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q2 TB 4th & 4 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(14:23) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 46 yards to NO 12, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 11-T.Lewis.
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Q2 NO 4th & 4 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52%
(12:13) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 47 yards to TB 25, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.
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Q2 NO 4th & 5 at the 30Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 76%
(2:39) (Field Goal formation) 3-W.Lutz right end to TB 26 for 4 yards (58-K.Alexander).
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Q2 NO 4th & 9 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(1:03) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 44 yards to TB 13, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.
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Q3 NO 4th & 10 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(11:41) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 47 yards to TB 10, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-50-G.Hodges.
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Q3 NO 4th & 15 at the 30Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 76%
(2:48) (Field Goal formation) 3-W.Lutz 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
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Q4 TB 4th & 19 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24%
(14:19) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 54 yards to NO 14, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 11-T.Lewis to NO 7 for -7 yards (26-J.Robinson). FUMBLES (26-J.Robinson), RECOVERED by TB-39-I.Johnson at NO 7. 39-I.Johnson for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q4 TB 4th & 10 at the 24 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 86%
(4:35) (Field Goal formation) 7-P.Murray 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.
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Q4 TB 4th & 10 at the 95 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.25 EPp(convert) 36%
(1:41) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short middle to 84-C.Brate to TB 17 for 12 yards (25-R.Bush).